Weekly price prediction of garlic and ginger using complex exponential smoothing

Garlic and ginger crops are commercially significant spices with high export value. Over the last few years, there more fluctuation in price, which has put growers at risk indirectly reduced production. Furthermore, advanced price forecasts for both became a valuable input policymakers order to stabilize prices key factor of effective market intelligence service. Therefore, study aims identify appropriate forecasting model weekly garlic ginger. For this purpose, used 331 observations wholesale were collected from 22nd week 2016 35th 2022 Varanasi market. The statistical tests identified presence non-normal, nonstationary nonlinearity features series. perusal literature suggested that ARIMA Exponential smoothing models implied as benchmark models. Based on characteristics, complex exponential Time delay neural network selected candidate From comparative analysis, results accuracy measures showed better performance compared networks. This recommended is suitable future values prices.